Double or Nothing: JPMorgan Expects Gold Prices to Shoot up as It Takes Center Stage as Equity Hedge
The Facts:
JPMorgan analysts have disregarded the recent gold selloff, estimating that it still has room to grow, and that its monstrous run can still regain momentum. In a recent note, bank analysts believe that gold can rise 110% by 2028, as it assumes a more relevant role in investors’ portfolios.
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Managing Director of Global Market Strategy at JPMorgan, and his team of analysts, maintain that trend commodity traders taking profit caused the recent gold selloff, the largest for the metal since 2013.
“If this assessment is correct and retail investors were not behind gold correction, then it is likely that their buying of gold ETFs has been less motivated by momentum and more driven by other factors,” they stressed.
One of these factors is the utilization of gold as an equity hedge, substituting bonds with a long date, which have been falling out of investors’ grace this 2025.
If gold substitutes 2% of an estimate of 20% of these bonds in the hands of investors, gold prices would more than double, Panigirtzoglou concluded.
Why It Is Important:
A continued rise in gold prices implies a devaluation of the U.S. dollar, and an advance in what many analysts have called “the debasement trade.” Further increases might entice central banks and retail to keep investing in gold, as more of these institutions lose confidence in the dollar’s strength.
The surge of gold as a stock hedge also implies there is some kind of distrust in how the market has been growing on the wings of artificial intelligence (AI) initiatives. This shows that investors consider a crash possible and are preparing in advance to some extent.
Looking Forward:
JPMorgan predicts gold prices to reach up to $5,055 per troy ounce by Q4 2026, supported by “investor demand and central bank buying averaging around 566 tons a quarter in 2026.”
Nonetheless, during times of financial and geopolitical uncertainty, with any measures affecting entire supply chains, it is very difficult to predict accurately the price of gold in the near term.
FAQ 🧭
What are JPMorgan analysts predicting for gold prices by 2028?
Analysts estimate that gold could rise by 110% by 2028, highlighting its increasing importance in investor portfolios.What caused the recent selloff in gold prices, according to JPMorgan?
The selloff was attributed to trend commodity traders taking profits, marking the largest decline in gold since 2013, rather than retail investors driving the correction.How is gold being utilized as an equity hedge?
Investors are substituting gold for long-dated bonds, which have recently fallen out of favor, suggesting a strategic shift in how portfolios are managed.What is JPMorgan’s short-term price forecast for gold?
The bank expects gold prices could reach up to $5,055 per troy ounce by Q4 2026, driven by strong investor demand and continued central bank purchases.
