Volume Collapse Revives 2023 Bitcoin Cycle Comparison
On-chain and market data analytics platform Cryptoquant shared an insight on May 26 showing bitcoin spot trading volume has fallen 81% from October 2025 levels. The analysis said activity has returned to conditions last seen near the end of the 2023 bear market. Binance volume dropped from $198.6 billion in October to $36.4 billion, while Gate.io declined 79.6% and Bybit fell 66%. The chart also tracked OKX, Coinbase, Kraken, and Upbit, showing broad cooling across BTC spot markets.
The analysis connected the slowdown to weaker participation across the crypto sector rather than a shift between exchanges. Lower turnover has emerged during a period of macroeconomic uncertainty tied to inflationary pressure and the extended U.S.-Iran conflict. Investors have rotated toward commodities and traditional equity indexes, while BTC spot activity has continued to weaken. The insight suggested weaker trading activity may signal that selling pressure is easing after months of retracement. The analyst wrote:
“The decline in trading activity suggests that the selling pressure behind the current retracement is gradually losing momentum.”
Why Lower BTC Volume Can Mark a Cycle Transition
Current BTC trading conditions resemble the second half of 2023, when BTC spot trading activity weakened sharply before volatility returned and bullish momentum recovered. The latest decline in exchange activity has revived comparisons with that earlier market transition.
Coinglass data also shows weaker participation across both spot and derivatives markets. Its dashboards track BTC spot exchange volume, futures open interest, funding rates, and liquidation activity across major crypto platforms. Those indicators point to softer speculative demand and lower leverage compared with earlier cycle peaks. Thin liquidity can also amplify volatility once trading activity rebounds, since smaller order books often lead to sharper price swings.
The analyst added:
“Historically, it was precisely after spot volumes collapsed that the 2023 bear market came to an end, followed by the return of volatility and the recovery of the bullish trend.”
Traders are now watching whether BTC spot activity stabilizes while prices hold current levels. A recovery in participation could signal renewed market conviction after the recent retracement phase.
