Stalled Negotiations and Regional Stability
Bitcoin briefly dipped below $80,000 on May 12 as global markets reacted to President Donald Trump’s warning that the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was “on life support.” After testing the $82,000 mark Monday afternoon, the top cryptocurrency showed signs of weakness, plummeting to $80,900.
Although bitcoin quickly rebounded to trade above $81,000 in the early hours of Tuesday, it could not hold the level and slipped below the threshold again around 4 a.m. EDT. From that point, the cryptocurrency began a gradual decline that erased nearly all gains made in the preceding 48 hours. By 12:54 p.m. EDT, bitcoin had dipped to an intraday low of $79,820 before recovering quickly to $80,500.
Consequently, the 1.6% drop over 24 hours dragged the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization down to $1.61 trillion.
Speaking to reporters shortly after receiving Iran’s proposal, which he deemed “unacceptable,” President Trump repeated the argument that Tehran is stringing the U.S. along and seems uninterested in reaching an agreement. This latest impasse in negotiations is seen as strengthening hawks in Washington who favor a return to full combat operations.
However, a return to combat would ensure the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic has slowed to a trickle since the conflict began, remains closed. As warned by the Aramco CEO, this prospect means the oil market and prices will not stabilize until at least 2027. This warning places the Trump administration and the Republican Party in a bind, as higher oil prices for the remainder of the year will likely harm their chances in the November midterms.
Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East were not the only factor weighing on markets. The release of the U.S. April consumer price index (CPI) data, which showed inflation rising to 3.8% versus the projected 3.7%, dampened hopes of a rate cut. As expected, energy prices—particularly gasoline—were the main culprits. The producer price index (PPI) report, set for release on May 13, is the next major catalyst to watch, as it will signal whether these price pressures are continuing to build at the manufacturing level.
Meanwhile, bitcoin’s price action over 24 hours saw $57 million in long bets liquidated versus $7.5 million in shorts. Overall, the cryptocurrency market saw nearly $280 million in leveraged positions liquidated, with long bets accounting for approximately $232 million.
