Market Overview
On Friday, November 1st, U.S. stock markets closed with slight gains across all three major indices after experiencing some recent corrections. Gold futures dipped slightly to $2,745 per ounce, while oil remained steady around $69 per barrel.
The latest U.S. unemployment report was released, showing an unemployment rate of 4.1%, which aligns with market forecasts. Non-farm payrolls increased by 12,000 in October, a sharp decline from September and far below the Dow Jones estimate of 100,000. However, analysts suggest that the labor market may have been impacted by hurricanes and the Boeing strikes, making it difficult to accurately assess the strength of new job creation. The Federal Reserve is expected to consider this data when deciding on future interest rate moves. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, investors are anticipating a 0.25% rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting.
Bitcoin continues to hover around $69,000, with mixed performances from altcoins. The total crypto market capitalization stands at $2.438 trillion.
Bitcoin Profitability and Historical Trends
Currently, 94.98% of Bitcoin supply is in profit, placing BTC near a historically significant red zone. This percentage remains high, indicating that most BTC holders are still experiencing gains.
Historically, November has been a volatile month for Bitcoin, with some years showing significant gains and others, losses. On average, BTC has increased by 42.82% in November, primarily due to a massive 446% surge in November 2013. However, the median gain is a more modest 7.12%, which may be a more realistic benchmark for this year. It remains to be seen how BTC will perform this month.
Glassnode data reveals that short-term holders sent over $2 billion worth of Bitcoin to exchanges to cut losses last Wednesday, suggesting panic selling at the $69,000 to $70,000 range. Meanwhile, over the past three days, short-term holders have also transferred more than $6 billion worth of Bitcoin to exchanges, likely to lock in profits or prepare for market uncertainty ahead of the U.S. election.
Insights from Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao
CZ recently shared his views in an interview, emphasizing Bitcoin’s cyclical nature. While he did not offer financial advice, he noted that BTC has historically experienced significant growth every four years, with 2013, 2017, and 2021 being notable bull years. According to CZ, 2024 may be a year of recovery, aligning with this pattern, although he acknowledged that future market conditions are unpredictable. Despite short-term fluctuations, CZ remains optimistic about the long-term growth of the crypto market, driven by increasing user adoption and utility.
U.S. Election Update
Twitter account @tier10k reported that Vice President Kamala Harris is polling ahead of Donald Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan, according to a new CNN survey. If states like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada align with predictions from Polymarket users, Pennsylvania could be the deciding factor in the election outcome.
Harris overtakes Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan after new CNN poll
If Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada play out as Polymarket users predict, Pennsylvania will decide the winner pic.twitter.com/qe7BGUvTgn
— db (@tier10k) November 1, 2024
In a recent interview with CBS News, Trump’s vice presidential candidate JD Vance disclosed that he owns between $250,000 and $500,000 in Bitcoin. If Trump wins, JD Vance’s pro-Bitcoin stance could have a favorable impact on BTC and the broader crypto market.
The election remains a key focus, and its outcome could influence BTC in the short term. Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, discussed this on Yahoo Finance, emphasizing that:
“The main catalyst for Bitcoin is institutional adoption, fueled by significant inflows into Spot ETFs. Regardless of the election outcome, the long-term trend remains positive, driven by institutional participation and Bitcoin’s fixed supply. If Trump wins, crypto might benefit in the short term due to clearer regulations, especially for altcoins. However, in the long run, Bitcoin will continue to serve as a hedge against a debt-laden financial system, with the potential to reach $100,000 by 2025.”
Overall, Hougan believes that BTC and crypto will thrive over the long term, regardless of who becomes president. The crypto market has demonstrated resilience and growth even without regulatory clarity. However, a Trump victory could accelerate regulatory clarity, particularly benefiting altcoins, while Bitcoin’s primary catalyst remains strong institutional interest and adoption.
Hougan also addressed a common misconception about Bitcoin, noting that many people still view it purely as a currency. He clarified that the term “crypto asset” is more appropriate, as most people don’t use BTC for everyday purchases but rather as a store of value, akin to digital gold.
Other Updates in the Crypto Space
- 21Shares Files for XRP Spot ETF: The firm is hoping for a change in the SEC’s leadership after the election and has officially filed for an XRP Spot ETF.
- Mt. Gox Moves BTC: On Friday, November 1st, Mt. Gox moved 500 BTC (approximately $35 million) to two different addresses. However, this news hardly impacted the market, signaling the market’s resilience. In the past, Mt. Gox has already distributed a significant portion of its assets to victims.
- Paxos Launches USDG Stablecoin in Singapore: Paxos introduced USDG, a USD-backed stablecoin held in reserves at DBS Bank. The stablecoin is compliant with the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) regulations and is available on the Ethereum blockchain. Paxos aims to expand USDG’s reach globally through partnerships with crypto exchanges and wallets.
- Tokenized T-Bills Fund Launched in Abu Dhabi: Realize and Neovision Wealth Management introduced the Realize T-Bills Fund, tokenizing U.S. Treasury ETF assets like BlackRock’s iShares and State Street’s SPDR. The fund plans to raise $200 million, issuing $RBILL tokens on IOTA and Ethereum to enhance investment efficiency.
- Metaplanet Becomes Japan’s Best-Performing Stock: The company, known for its Bitcoin accumulation strategy akin to MicroStrategy, has achieved record-breaking growth.
- SEC Wells Notice for Immutable: The gaming platform Immutable has received a Wells notice from the SEC, a significant development signaling that the company has grown large enough to attract regulatory attention. Immutable has committed to defending itself against any enforcement action from the SEC.
- Suriname Presidential Candidate Backs Bitcoin: Maya Parbhoe, a presidential candidate, has pledged to recognize Bitcoin as legal tender on her first day in office if elected.
- Strive to Integrate Bitcoin: Financial services firm Strive, which manages $1.7 billion and was co-founded by Trump advisor Vivek Ramaswamy, announced plans to incorporate Bitcoin into standard American investment portfolios as part of its new wealth management venture.
