Why Standard Chartered Still Sees Ethereum Reaching $40,000
Ethereum’s underlying network indicators continue strengthening even as ETH remains far below recent highs, according to a May 28 research note from Standard Chartered’s Global Research team. Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, wrote that transaction numbers and total value locked, measured in ETH terms, remain near record levels. ETH has still fallen roughly 57% from its August 2025 peak, while ETH- BTC is down 37%.
Standard Chartered argues the market is focusing on ETH’s price decline while overlooking stronger transaction and value-locking trends. The bank compared Ethereum’s current position to Amazon after the dot-com crash, when the company’s shares plunged despite continued operational progress. That analogy frames ETH’s sell-off as a possible market disconnect rather than a breakdown in network demand.
Kendrick wrote:
“Internal metrics for Ethereum ( ETH) continue to improve … However, the ETH price continues to underperform in both absolute and relative terms – ETH-USD has fallen 57% from its August 2025 high.”
The bank’s $40,000 ETH target is tied to expected expansion in stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets. Standard Chartered forecasts the stablecoin market will grow sixfold by the end of 2028, while tokenized real-world assets excluding stablecoins could expand fiftyfold. That projected growth gives the bank a clearer path from today’s weak ETH price to its 2030 forecast.
How Stablecoins and Tokenized Assets Support the ETH Forecast
The research note highlighted Ethereum’s dominant position in markets expected to benefit from the migration of traditional financial assets to blockchain networks. Ethereum currently accounts for roughly 50%-65% of both the stablecoin and tokenized real-world asset markets. Those sectors already represent more than half of the value locked on Ethereum.
If Ethereum keeps that share as traditional finance moves on-chain, Standard Chartered’s forecast implies ETH could gain from a much larger base of settlement activity. Standard Chartered also sees ETH- BTC returning to 0.08 by 2030, matching levels last seen around the 2021 market peak.
The bank’s forecast path calls for ETH to reach $10,000 in 2027, $18,000 in 2028, and $28,000 in 2029 before climbing to $40,000 in 2030. Standard Chartered also projects bitcoin rising from $100,000 in 2026 to $500,000 by 2030. Under those forecasts, the ETH- BTC ratio would increase from 0.04 in 2026 to 0.08 in 2030, implying Ethereum would outperform bitcoin over the period.
Kendrick wrote:
“We reaffirm our ETH forecasts of USD 4,000 for end-2026 and USD 40,000 for end-2030.”
The forecast ultimately rests on a simple gap: ETH price has lagged while the network’s usage metrics remain strong. Standard Chartered expects that gap to narrow if those markets continue expanding. That view keeps the bank’s long-term $40,000 target intact despite the recent decline.
