Powell’s Tribute to George Shultz Skips Any Mention of the Economy
Economists were left disappointed on Monday evening after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivered his tribute to late Reagan-era diplomat and economist George Shultz at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. Markets were bracing for any additional hints about the direction of interest rates ahead of the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week. But Powell was mum on the issue and made it abundantly clear from the outset that no hints were coming.
“I am deeply honored to have been asked to speak here today about the remarkable legacy of George Shultz,” Powell said. “Just to be clear, I will not address current economic conditions or monetary policy.”
Most experts agree that the Fed is now leaning dovish, as evidenced by the two rate cuts in September and October. The CME Fedwatch Tool currently shows an 87% probability of another 25-basis-point reduction at next week’s meeting. But perhaps Powell’s comments from October 29 are still fresh in the minds of many. “A further reduction at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion,” Powell said, a statement some believe sent bitcoin plunging 3%.
And so when markets learned that the chairman would be delivering a speech at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution on Monday evening, they were looking for any indication of his position on rates or the economy to move the needle from 87% to near-certainty, but Powell was not forthcoming. He did, however, explain that central banking, and specifically managing inflation is a difficult task.
“The central bank is responsible for price stability, so that issue is settled. It doesn’t mean it’s easy to do,” Powell said when asked about what lessons he had learned from Shultz. “You make it look so easy,” said panel moderator Peter Robinson jokingly. “Yeah. That’s the trick,” Powell responded, drawing laughs from the audience.
FAQ ⚡
- Why didn’t Powell comment on interest rates?
He said upfront that his Stanford speech was strictly a tribute to George Shultz and not about monetary policy. - What were markets hoping to hear from Powell?
Investors were looking for any hint about rate cuts ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. - Is the Fed still expected to cut rates in December?
Markets now price an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point cut despite Powell’s prior warning that it’s “not a foregone conclusion.” - Did Powell offer any economic insights at all?
Only indirectly, noting that managing inflation is difficult even when the Fed’s mandate is clear.
