A March 13 research note from Mizuho Securities analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins found that USDC has processed about $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume so far in 2026, compared with $1.3 trillion for tether (USDT). That gives Circle’s stablecoin roughly 64% of adjusted stablecoin activity, reversing a long-standing trend in which USDT dominated transaction flows between 2019 and 2025.
The development prompted Mizuho to raise its 12-month price target for Circle (NYSE: CRCL) to $120 from $100, while maintaining a neutral rating. Circle shares traded near $115.40 in early Friday activity and have climbed sharply since February. The figures rely on “adjusted” transaction volume, a metric designed to remove artificial activity such as wash trading, automated exchange transfers, and high-frequency bot traffic.
Instead, the measure focuses on transactions that resemble real economic movement of funds, including transfers tied to decentralized finance activity, payments, prediction markets, or funds moving between exchanges and blockchain protocols. Despite the shift in activity, USDT still leads by market capitalization, with about $183–184 billion outstanding, compared with roughly $75–79 billion for USDC. Analysts say the longer-term competition among stablecoins will likely center on which token becomes the preferred medium for everyday digital payments and settlement.
FAQ 🔎
- What is adjusted stablecoin transaction volume?
It measures blockchain transfers after removing exchange churn, bots, and wash trading to better reflect genuine economic activity. - How much adjusted volume has USDC recorded in 2026?
Analysts estimate about $2.2 trillion year-to-date, compared with $1.3 trillion for USDT. - Does USDC now dominate the stablecoin market overall?
No, USDT still leads by market capitalization with roughly $183–184 billion outstanding. - Why is this volume shift important?
Analysts view transaction activity as a signal of real-world usage in payments, decentralized finance, and digital settlement networks.
